How the Sneaker Game Has Evolved Over the Last 10 Years

Over the last decade, the sneaker game has seen a tremendous amount of growth. The Sole Supplier has been around for almost 10 years now, and we’ve seen the ebb and flow of the industry with our very own eyes. Back in 2012, not many people were really into sneakers and it was seen as quite a niche hobby. In fact, according to statistics from RunRepeat, the industry was worth less than $35 billion back then. Fast forward to the end of this year, and its value will have more than doubled to $86 billion. You would be hard-pressed to find another market quite like this.

Take the handbag industry, for example. Consumers been buying these since the beginning of time, and according to the latest numbers from Fortune Business Insights, that market will only be worth $78 billion by the year 2028. In comparison, the trainer industry will be worth over $150 billion, if not more.

These are extremely exciting times for the sneaker game, and as we begin a new year we want to take a moment to look back at the last 10 years and take a deep-dive into some of the biggest brands, the resale market, sustainability, and of course, some predictions for the next decade.

Whether you’re a hardcore sneakerhead or just a casual fan, it’s easy to see what the most popular brands are. In 2012, the top three sneaker companies were Nike, adidas, and Under Armour. These were considered some of the most valuable brands not only in fashion, but also in sportswear too. The Swoosh was valued at just under $16 billion according to Forbes, while the Three Stripes and UA capped at $6.8 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively. Looking at those exact same companies today, Nike is said to be worth an eye-watering $35 billion which is more than double what it was back then. adidas is forecasted to take the lead with a $40 billion valuation, while Under Armour will increase to $5 billion.

Over the past few years, brands like New Balance and Jordan Brand have really began to pick up steam as industry leaders. Search volume for New Balance, for instance, has increased by almost three times. Jordan Brand, which is owned by Nike, wasn’t as popular in markets outside of the US back in 2012. Now, the Michael Jordan-helmed label is worth more than $1.3 billion alone thanks to its vast collection of silhouettes and the release of The Last Dance in 2020.

While sneaker reselling is certainly nothing new these days, back in 2012, the resale market was just getting on its feet. Online marketplaces like StockX and GOAT weren’t even established yet, so most people resold sneakers via eBay. At this time, the resale game was worth around $258 million according to Zhang BoPing, who wrote “Analysis on the Current Situation and Future Development of Sneaker Resale Market”. 10 years later and this industry-within-an-industry is estimated to be worth round $6 billion. This is a mind-boggling number considering that’s a whole one bill more than the entire worth of Under Armour.

StockX is currently the biggest resale platform online. Founded by Dan Gilbert, Josh Luber, Greg Schwartz, and Chris Kaufman in 2015, they’ve seen a huge surge in growth in the short seven years that they’ve been around. In 2020, they released their “The State of Resale” statistics which showed this increase in an easy-to-read infographic. At the end of that year, they made a record-breaking $1.8 billion in gross merchandise value. They also received 200 million visitors and reported that its global active buyers were up by more than 90% year-on-year, with active sellers located outside of the US more than doubling.

This rapid expansion couldn’t have been achieved without the help of bots. The Sole Supplier recently wrote an article explaining what a sneaker bot is, but essentially they are pieces of software that are designed to help people quickly purchase limited availability stock. Brands like Nike and adidas are doing their utmost to tackle these nowadays, but back in 2012, it was an entirely different story. In fact, legend has it that bots really came into mainstream during the 2012 release of the Air Jordan 9 Doernbecher.

For the release of the shoe, the Beaverton brand used a technique that it had only just started experimenting with. With no prior warning, the company would fire off a Tweet to announce when the shoe was available. To reserve them you had to send them a direct message on Twitter complete with your name and size. Some tech-savvy sneakerheads realised this and wrote custom scripts that would scan Twitter API streams for keywords like “Doernbecher” and “RSVP now”, and they programmed these to automatically reply as soon as the Tweets went live.

As mentioned in our article “The State of Sneaker Sustainability in 2021”, being environmentally-friendly in the sneaker industry is now more important than ever. In a study conducted by Quantis, they stated that sneaker production accounts for 1.4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To tackle this, companies like Nike, adidas, and New Balance are all changing their processes to create more sustainable sneakers. Nike, for instance, are aiming towards a zero carbon and zero waste future with their Move To Zero initiative. They also want to use more than 1 billion plastic bottles per year to create yarns for new jerseys and uppers for Flyknit shoes. Some of these processes are already being implemented into their current product line. From the Air VaporMax to the Space Hippie, these are all crafted from recycled materials without compromising on design and usability.

adidas, on the other hand, have been manufacturing around 20 million pairs of shoes with Parley ocean plastic such as the NMD and Ultra Boost. On top of that, they’ve started collecting the equivalent of 4.5 billion plastic bottles for its recycled apparel range. This massive commitment is supported by the introduction of various new projects, including the Stan Smith Mylo which is crafted from mushrooms and Kanye West's ever-popular Yeezy Foam Runner that's partially made with algae.

While this might seem like a new issue, 10 years ago an average pair of sneakers generated approximately 13.6 kilograms of CO₂ emissions, according to a MIT paper published by Jennifer Chu. Even then, this was unusually high for a product that does not use electricity or require power-driving components, so it’s good to see that brands are placing a bigger focus on creating greener sneakers. Environmentally-friendly companies such as Allbirds and VEJA have also been making waves in recent months, with both brands using ethically-farmed materials for their collections.

2012 was huge when it came to textile-based sneakers. If you look back at some of the most popular pairs that released that year, you’ll find the the majority of them were either the Flyknit Trainer or the Roshe Run. As the UK began to get more into collecting trainers, America’s basketball influences slowly but surely seeped into our collections. The Air Jordan 4 “Bred” and “Military Blue” were two of the most-copped Jumpman pairs of ’12, while the Air Jordan 7 “Raptors” and Foamposite One also made its way to rotations across Britain. This was the year that everyone wanted a pair of running or basketball shoes, and of course, it’s also the year that Kanye teamed up with Nike for the legendary Air Yeezy 2 line.

At 8:30pm on June 9th 2012, the sneaker world stood still. A particularly cool day for summer, it was immediately fired up with the shock release of the Air Yeezy 2 “Pure Platinum”. For many, this marked the beginning of their love for Nike, but for Ye, this was the end.

There was so much controversy surrounding this silhouette that we wrote a whole piece about it, but during the final days of the Air Yeezy partnership it was clear that there was trouble in paradise. During the lead up to the release of the now-iconic “Red October”, West was very open about his lack of creative control when designing his own sneakers. During the New York leg of his YEEZUS tour, he exploded: “They let me sip that clean water when they let me make them Yeezys, and they saw how the universe reacted. They tried to make it as small as possible. Mark Parker even talked shit, talking 'bout he don't even know why people like the Yeezys. They liked them like they liked the Jordans because I was in fourth grade getting kicked out for drawing Jordans, for being connected to that emotion as a creative.”

As the old saying goes, when one door closes, another door opens. Just weeks after this outburst, it was officially announced that the American rapper would be joining adidas, and the rest is history. If you look at some of the most popular pairs today, almost 100% of them are collaborations and partnerships made with big names in fashion, art and music. Even after ten years, Ye is still churning out fire Yeezy after fire Yeezy. Fashion icons like Chitose Abe, Hiroshi Fujiwara, Sean Wotherspoon, and Virgil Abloh have also been dropping some insanely hyped collections, with the latter completely changing the sneaker landscape with 2017’s “THE TEN”.

Following this coveted collection, Abloh went on to launch over one hundred sneakers with the Swoosh, including the “Dear Summer” Dunk Low range. Unfortunately, the Off-White founder tragically passed away at the tail end of 2021, but his legacy will live on forever.

So how will the sneaker game evolve in the next 10 years? With the way things are going at the minute it’s hard to predict, but we know for sure that it’ll still be kicking about. By 2032, the sneaker industry could be worth as much as $200 billion. In fact, Cowen Equity Research predicts that even the resale market will be valued at over $30 billion by then. To put this into perspective, that’s how much Nike is worth right now.

In terms of sustainability, Nike plan to divert 99% of all footwear manufacturing waste from landfills to create their products, and adidas want to only use recycled polyester and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 30%. All operations owned by New Balance will be powered by 100% renewable energy, and the Boston-based brand also want to completely eliminate the use of hazardous chemicals and achieve zero waste in their factories. The future is looking green for the sneaker game, and that’s what we love to see.

Whatever happens in 2032, The Sole Supplier will still be here to report on the latest and greatest sneaker and streetwear drops. Whether that’s on your feet or in the metaverse, you can bet that we’ll be the first one to let you now.

So, here’s to the next ten!