The Sneaker Showdown: Has adidas Outpaced Nike?

In 2022, the sneaker world was rocked by the news of adidas and Kanye West parting ways. Fast forward two years, and who would have predicted such an impressive recovery by the German brand? It has been a resurgence so remarkable that it's causing sleepless nights for Nike's management across the Atlantic. The proof is in the numbers, and here at The Sole Supplier, we've observed a similar trend: a shift in consumer demand. But have the Three Stripes truly surpassed the Swoosh in the sneaker wars? Let's dive into our data and find out.

Our data shows that adidas has had an incredible period of growth throughout 2024, while Nike has seen a 10% drop in demand year on year. Search trends indicate that adidas had their biggest year since 2016, with a 24% year-on-year growth for the brand here in the UK. On the other hand, this year Nike have seemed to struggle, particularly during the Spring/Summer season, with interest dipping for most weeks compared to what we saw in 2023.

The discrepancy in growth between these two sportswear giants is most noticeable amongst a younger audience. Looking at TikTok, Nike and adidas were both on a level playing field at the start of 2024, both with around 6 million followers. However, as 2024 draws to an end we can see adidas now sit at an astounding 8.7 million, with Nike lagging behind at 6.9 million.

For the past few years, it’s been impossible to dispute the fact that Nike has been the biggest sneaker brand. Back in 2023, Nike footwear accounted for 67% of all sneakers bought through The Sole Supplier, while adidas in second place held a 15% share. This year, Nike's share has dropped by 11%, whereas adidas has enjoyed an impressive 81% growth year on year, with now almost a third of all sneakers bought in 2024 being a pair from the Three Stripes brand.

Alongside this direct competition between the two, there has also been a growth in competition from “outsider brands” who are eating into the sneaker market. On Running and ASICS have all seen incredible growth in the past year, attesting to the growth of markets outside of traditional streetwear. Since 2020, we’ve seen Gorpcore take over the industry and then this year the boom in running culture has meant more brands than ever are taking chips away from both adidas and Nike at a crucial time.

Even though adidas had a strong 2023 and an exceptional year so far, they have not dethroned Nike from being the dominant brand in the sneaker industry just yet. This year, 56% of the shoes bought through The Sole Supplier have been a pair of Nikes. This shows that while Nike is still the leader, not adapting and responding to the year-on-year decline could spell trouble for keeping their top spot.

But why is Nike declining in the sneaker industry?

In 2023, the Dunks were the hot sellers, with standout releases like the "Jarritos” Dunk Low Pro, Dunk Low “Grey Fog" and Born x Raised x Nike SB Dunk leading the way. The hysteria around the Nike Dunk can be encapsulated by the fact that the average SB Dunk was selling for 375% more than their retail price in 2021. This year, however, not a single Dunk release has made it into our top 25 most popular releases of the year.

Instead, we have seen the adidas Handball Spezial take its place, with the “Earth Strata” colourway being the hottest shoe of the year. A possible reason for this is to do with oversaturation. The sheer number of Dunk releases last year (over 250 colourways added to The Sole Supplier in 2023 alone) might have naturally worn out demand, as people looked for something fresh.

Nike's recent dip in market share in comparison to adidas could also be tied to the different release strategies between the two brands. Nike began to pivot to a direct-to-consumer strategy in 2019, and further doubled down on this in 2021, with the brand claiming they could double profits by selling more through their own website and stores. While this offered great success for the brand during the COVID period, when physical retailers were suffering most, it opened the gap for competitors to take their place.

Alongside this move away from traditional retailers, Nike placed a focus on their own product release strategy. In the past two years, Nike have released hundreds of sneakers through their SNKRS app, where users have to enter a raffle to get their hands on the hottest limited release drops. While this approach helped to build up hype within the resell community, it left long time fans and new sneakerheads disheartened as they struggled to snag their favourite sneakers at retail prices, with the brand themselves highlighting this problem in a 2021 internal meeting.

Speaking of prices, this again has also been a problem area for many sneakerheads. The average cost of a Jordan 1 in 2021 was around £145, however in 2024 you’re now looking at £175. The same can be said for Air Max 95s, rising from £155 to £175 and the Nike TN which saw the same price increase. At a time when people are finding it harder to save, these price increases have had a big impact.

Meanwhile, adidas on the other hand have been releasing a steady stream of general release colourways which have helped the brand build traction with a brand-new audience and which are almost always available at a price point under £100. While some of the more in demand colourways may sell out, there is often a restock waiting just around the corner!

However, it's not all smooth sailing for the Three Stripes, as they could soon find themselves replicating the same issues we saw with the Nike Dunks. As we head into the holiday season, the demand for popular adidas styles like Handball Spezials, Sambas, and Gazelles already looks to be at fever pitch. The burning question is, can they keep it up?

The adidas Samba was crowned the shoe of the year by many in 2023, but many critics stated that the hype around the silhouette would not last. Despite this, here we are, a year later, talking again about how adidas’ terrace styles are dominating the industry. Will the momentum continue into 2025 or will consumer demand lead to a new brand stealing the limelight?

After a difficult year, the next 12 months promise to offer a lot from Nike. 2025 is the anniversary of legendary styles like the Air Max 95 and Air Max 90, offering a critical opportunity for the brand. Rumours have already begun to swirl about the 2025 comeback of the Big Bubble 95s, UNDEFEATED AJ4, and Union AJ1.

Nike is also embracing change and innovation more aggressively. The Swoosh has recently unveiled a 3D printed Air Max sneaker, signalling their intent to push boundaries beyond their traditional lineup and challenge models like the adidas Climacool 24. It will be fascinating to see if the newer Air Max models, such as the Air Max DN8, will be able to capture the hearts of Gen Z just as the heritage models did with Millennials. With management shake ups and exciting launches on the horizon, Nike is poised for a strong comeback.

As consumers, we're looking forward to intense competition, promising great models, colourways, and collaborations from both brands. After all, healthy competition is something we all enjoy, right?